Cut or Keep and Prediction: Will David Bakhtiari return to the Packers?

With the Green Bay Packers offseason in full swing, I will once again be working through my ‘Cut or Keep and Prediction’ series over the next few weeks.

In these articles, I will look at potential cut candidates on this Packers team and lay out why the Packers could choose to move on from that player, why they might keep them, and then at the end, I will make my prediction.

Up first is left tackle David Bakhtiari. Be sure to head over to Twitter to vote for what you think the Packers will do.

Why the Packers would keep David Bakhtiari

When on the field, Bakhtiari continued to play at a very high level this season. According to PFF ($$), Bakhtiari was on the field for 339 pass-blocking snaps in 2022, and he allowed only 10 pressures and no sacks. In true pass sets, Bakhtiari ranked seventh out of all tackles in pass-blocking efficiency and 25th out of 86 tackles in PFF’s zone run-blocking grade.

In addition to his high level of play, having an elite presence at left tackle opens up the rest of the playbook for Matt LaFleur, who said following the Washington game that the playbook changes when Bakhtiari is on the field because of his abilities. On the flip side, without Bakhtiari, there was some additional game planning that had to take place to help protect the offensive line, which included a heavy reliance on the quick passing game through the early and middle portions of the season and sometimes a reluctance to run the ball.

Understandably so, concerns around Bakhtiari’s availability as he enters his age 32 season are a valid concern, but when it comes to his knee, that really wasn’t much of an issue beyond Week 10. He and the Packers found a good rhythm in terms of practice and getting him ready for Sunday, and over the second half of the season, his availability was never much of a concern for that reason. Bakhtiari will now have an entire offseason to prepare for the upcoming season, something he didn’t have a year ago.

Why the Packers would cut David Bakhtiari

There are really two reasons that this would take place. The first is his recent injury history, and the second is his cap hit.

As I just mentioned, Bakhtiari’s knee wasn’t much of an issue during the final six or seven games of the season, but if we’ve learned anything over the last two seasons, something can flare up at any time and cause him to miss some games. That factor, coupled with a cap hit north of $28 million this season, certainly puts some risk on the Packers’ plate, especially for a team who is again lacking cap space.

Also, if the Packers were to move on from him, they do have viable replacements already on the roster. Both Zach Tom and Yosh Nijman proved to be capable starters, and Elgton Jenkins is another option for them to play left tackle as well.

Prediction: Packers keep David Bakhtiari

Although Bakhtiari comes with a massive cap hit, ultimately, the cap savings that the Packers would receive just don’t justify the move, with Green Bay saving only $5.7 million per Over the Cap.

For a Packers team that still very much wants to compete regardless of who the quarterback is, moving on from an elite left tackle, which only frees up enough cap space to sign a rotational player at another position, makes little sense. Even if he misses some time here and there, 12 or 13 games of Bakhtiari is better than 17 without.

Now, with that said, the Packers will have to adjust Bakhtiari’s contract. They simply can’t afford the $28 million cap hit. So as they’ve done frequently over the last two offseasons, I would expect the Packers to restructure his contract, pushing some of the current cap charges to future years.