Packers can’t afford not to have Aaron Jones back in 2023
By Paul Bretl
Regardless of who is under center for the Green Bay Packers in 2023, whether that be Aaron Rodgers or Jordan Love, their roster is likely to look somewhat similar to this past season.
For one, Green Bay doesn’t plan on rebuilding, even if Love is the starting quarterback. And two, it’s not as if they have many significant cap-saving cuts at their disposal. As I wrote recently, their biggest improvements are going to have to come from internal development.
The Packers are once again going to be tight on salary cap space this offseason, likely meaning that they aren’t going to be big spenders in free agency, and the roster is going to look somewhat similar. The most cap space that they can create with one move is cutting Aaron Jones, which would save Green Bay over $10 million in much-needed cap space in 2023, according to Over the Cap. While some will argue that the Packers can’t afford to keep Jones and his $20-plus million cap hit–a hefty amount to pay a running back in today’s NFL. However, one could also argue that this offense can’t afford to lose him.
For an offense that lacked consistent playmaking over the course of the season, Jones was the one constant in that regard. He would finish second on the team in receptions with 72, catching 82% of them while scoring five times. Jones’ 6.7 yards per catch doesn’t leap off the stat sheet by any means, but that was more of a productive of him primarily being targeted around the line of scrimmage than his ability to create big plays. If Jones does return, Matt LaFleur can unlock some big play potential by getting Joens the ball more so downfield.
On the ground, Jones was again explosive with the ball. His 5.3 yards per carry was the sixth-best rate among running backs. He was also incredibly difficult to bring down, ranking 15th in average yards after contact, seventh in missed tackles forced, and tied for sixth in rushes of 10 or more yards per PFF ($$).
During Green Bay’s run on offense, where they were averaging over 26 points per game from Weeks 10 through 17, the run game was the catalyst behind that success. In the five games where they scored at least 24, Jones, along with AJ Dillon, averaged nearly 130 yards per game and almost five yards per attempt. But in the two games where they failed to score more than 17, Jones and Dillon were held to less than three yards per rush. Ultimatley, when the passing game had to carry this offense, it simply wasn’t good enough and required success on the ground to open everything else up.
To put it simply, without Jones, an already up and down Packers offense would have stood very little chance of finding any success.
Now, with all that said, Jones’ injury history and the Packers having to be mindful of his workload is one reason to be hesitant of his return at that cap hit. He’s also had some crucial fumbles in big moments. But I think we can all agree that the positives far out weight the negatives when it comes to what Jones brings to this team, and Brian Gutekunst feels the same.
"“Certainly, we expect to have him back,” Gutekunst said Friday via Packers Wire when asked about Jones returning next season. “He’s a dynamic player. For a guy his size, to bring it every day, he rarely misses a practice, rarely misses a rep. The way he leads our football team, his consistency is amazing.”"
Gutekunst would also mention having to restructure Jones’ contract, which will be a must. Even if he is back, he won’t be playing the 2023 season with that $20 million cap hit. Instead, like they’ve done often in recent offseasons, Green Bay will convert a portion of Jones’ base salary to a signing bonus, which then allows them to push some of the current year’s cap charges to 2024 — the final year of Jones’ deal — and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them add voided years on as well as a bookkeeping measure that will allow them to further lower his 2023 cap hit.
If it was the Packers’ intention to hit the reset button to some degree this offseason, then moving on from Jones would make way more sense. But from the sounds of it, Gutekunst and LaFleur have no intention of that. So if their plan is to try to compete once again in 2023, then for an offense lacking consistent playmaking, Jones has to be a part of this team.