Inconsistent passing game leads to demise of Packers offense

In the game of football, there is rarely, if ever, one thing we can point to as the sole reason something didn’t work out. And that holds true when discussing the Green Bay Packers offense in 2022. There are a lot of factors that led to their up-and-down play, but ultimately, an inconsistent passing game was at the center of a lot of those issues.

From Week 10 and beyond, the offense really began to find its groove, averaging over 26 points per game prior to the season finale against Detroit. The emergence of Christian Watson played a big role in this resurgence, with defenses having to alter how they defended Green Bay in order to protect against Watson’s big play ability. In addition to Watson’s play during that stretch, he helped open up opportunities for others as well as the run game.

However, even with this newfound downfield element, in instances when the Packers had to rely heavily on the passing game, well, it just wasn’t good enough to shoulder that load.

In Green Bay’s last nine games, there were three times where they failed to score more than 17 points–against Detroit in Weeks 9 and 18, along with Tennessee in Week 11. In all three games, the run game was bottled up, with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon averaging a combined 69 yards per contest at 3.5 yards per rush. For some context, in the Packers’ other six games where they scored at least 24 points, the run game averaged nearly 130 yards at almost five yards per attempt per PFF.

In predictable passing situations, such as in the fourth quarters of each of these games against the Lions and Titans with the Packers trailing, they just weren’t consistent enough through the air. This was also evident throughout the season on third downs and in the red zone, where the Packers struggled. Unless it was third and short, teams were fully prepared for Green Bay to pass the ball. While in the red zone, opponents simply took the run game away and dared the Packers to throw. Even with Watson’s play, Green Bay didn’t have a that go-to option inside the 20-yard line.

Again, there are many reasons that factored into the Packers’ passing game woes. Through the early and middle portions of the season, Aaron Rodgers would point out that there were a lot of the wrong routes being ran. Dropped passes were prevalent for the Packers over the course of the season, along with Green Bay dealing with injuries at receiver, with Watson, Romeo Doubs, Allen Lazard, and Randall Cobb all missing multiple games, and often at the same time.

Rodgers’ play also took a step backwards as well. We all knew that moving the ball through the air was going to be a greater challenge without Davante Adams, but Rodgers was unable to regularly lift this passing game as he had in years past—not to mention that the offense looked stagnant at times, with more five wide sets and less motion, which aren’t core principles of LaFleur’s scheme

In addition to the receiver position, the Packers lacked playmaking in the passing game at running back and tight end as well. Although Jones was targeted heavily, it was frequently around the line of scrimmage, limiting his ability to generate big plays. He averaged under seven yards per catch, which ranked 30th among running backs. Dillon, meanwhile, struggled with drops, having the second-most on the team (behind only Jones), and he was used in a similar capacity as Jones, but doesn’t have the same elusiveness.

At tight end, Tonyan was the only consistent pass catching threat, but his average depth of target was just six yards, and he lacked the explosiveness to turn that into significant gains. We also have to bring up the offensive line play through the first half of the season as that group dealt with injuries of their own. The pass protection was very inconsistent at times along with the game plan feeling limited as LaFleur tried to protect the guys up front.

So like I said, it’s never just one thing and I know there are other factors that contributed to the passing game woes as well.

With the regular ups and downs of the passing game, the Lions were very aggressive in taking away the run and forcing the Packers to throw the ball by playing with heavier boxes and a lot of cover-1. As already mentioned, the passing game wasn’t equipped for this heavy lifting.

Naturally, the Green Bay passing game was the biggest concern for many entering the season, and ultimately, the inconsistently led to their season coming to a quick end. Whether it be over valuing the players on the roster, over estimating Rodgers and Matt LaFleur’s abilities to lift this group up, or a combination of the two, it just simply wasn’t good enough.