Final Thoughts: Win and In for Packers against Lions in Week 18

We’ve discussed quite a few playoff scenarios for the Green Bay Packers over the last several weeks, but here in Week 18 against the Detroit Lions, it’s as simple as it can get — win and in.

In Week 9, when these two teams previously met, the Lions used the win over the Packers as a jumping-off point to winning six of their next eight games. Green Bay, meanwhile, hit a low point, scoring only nine points in what ended up being their fifth consecutive loss. This time around, however, both teams are very much in different spots, with their playoff hopes still alive.

As part of my final preview of the Packers’ upcoming matchup, I have my final thoughts on the upcoming game.

– The Packers’ defense will face a new challenge this week against a balanced Lions offense. In Green Bay’s previous three games, they’ve played the Rams, Dolphins, and Vikings, all of whom rank 27th or worse in average rush attempts per game. So, in addition to having to defend some explosive wide receivers, the Packers played a lot of cover-2 and cover-6 because they didn’t have to worry about the run games as much. That won’t be the case against Detroit, however, who will happily run the ball.

– After having to defend Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Justin Jefferson, the Packers now have to slow Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is 11th in receiving yards this season. St. Brown isn’t a downfield threat, but instead, the Lions get him the ball quickly and oftentimes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, according to PFF, where his YAC abilities can take over. Once again, all 11 defenders swarming to the football and tackling will be crucial.

– For the most part, the Packers kept St. Brown in check the first time around, but something additional to contend with in Week 18 will be DJ Chark and Jameson Williams, both of whom didn’t play in Week 9. Without these two, the Lions were missing their home run threats, which allowed Green Bay to shrink the field to take away St. Brown. They likely won’t have that luxury this time around, and defending against the deep ball, will leave room underneath.

– The Packers’ front seven has been much better as of late, both in pressuring the quarterback and slowing the run, but they face a difficult challenge this week against an offensive line that Joe Barry called one of the best in football. Like most quarterbacks, Goff’s efficiency goes down fairly drastically, and his turnover potential goes way up when pressured.

– One thing to watch pregame is whether or not Lions center Frank Ragnow will be available, as he is listed as questionable. His absence would mean another backup center for Kenny Clark to go up against.

– Green Bay has feasted on turnovers over the last four games, generating 12, including eight in the last two. Jared Goff, and the Lions, however, have been very good at not turning the ball over. Goff’s last interception came in Week 9 against the Packers. As always, the turnover battle will play a key role in this game.

– Zach Kruse of Packers Wire covered it here, but in short, the Lions are statistically a much different team on the road compared to when they’re at home. The fact that this game is at Lambeau Field should very much play in the Packers’ favor.

– Detroit’s defense was able to bottle up the Packers’ run game in the previous matchup, and they did so by playing aggressively and daring Green Bay to throw the ball. As I’ve often discussed, the run game is an important part of the Packers’ success on offense. But in Week 9, we hadn’t seen the emergence of Christian Watson just yet. With his big play ability, the Lions likely can’t play as aggressively, which should open up running opportunities as the defense spreads out. In addition to a struggling run game, the Packers were 0/4 in the red zone and Aaron Rodgers had easily his worst performance of the season.

– Green Bay is relatively healthy for this time of the year but Josiah Deguara is listed as questionable. He hasn’t filled the stat sheet by any means, but he’s been a very important member of the Packers run game with his versatility and ability as a blocker.

– This is a Lions defense that blitzes fairly often, and Rodgers has been very good when blitzes this season. He was incredibly efficient against blitz-heavy Miami.

– I wrote earlier in the week that the Packers could have a decision to make at right tackle between Yosh Nijman and Zach Tom. But my guess is that they will continue with Nijman. He’s played well, and having Tom off the bench allows the Packers to play him really anywhere if an injury were to occur to one of the starters.

– No practice squad elevations for the Packers, which means Mason Crosby will be handling kickoffs. Crosby has the most kick return attempts this season because he oftentimes doesn’t get the ball to the end zone. But he did have a very good game against Minnesota and Kene Nwangwu last week. No elevations also means the Packers may have only four interior defensive linemen available again unless they decide to activate Jonathan Ford for the first time this season.

– I know it didn’t look like it in Week 9, but the Lions still have one of the worst defenses in football statistically. They also have an offense that can score a lot of points as well.

– The Lions could be eliminated from playoff contention with a Seattle win this afternoon, but whether Detroit has playoff hopes or not, I fully expect this Dan Campbell-led team to play hard.

– Prediction: Packers 31 – Lions 24