3 Key Matchups to Watch in Packers vs. Lions Game

Somehow, we’ve made it to this point. The Green Bay Packers are on a four-game winning streak and playing their best football, which has put them in position — along with receiving a ton of help — to clinch the NFC’s final playoff spot at home against the Detroit Lions.

Week 9 was a low point for the Packers’ offense, as they were going up against one of the worst defenses in football, but put up only nine points behind a stifled run game, poor play from Aaron Rodgers, and an inability to score when in the red zone. The Lions, however, used that game to catapult themselves into playoff contention, as they have now won seven of their last nine games.

With a win, the Packers are in the playoffs. The Lions need a loss from Seattle earlier in the day and then a win over Green Bay in order for them to clinch a playoff spot.

As we have prior to each game this season, let’s dive into the three key matchups that you need to know about before the Packers’ matchup with the Lions unfolds.

Amon-Ra St. Brown v. Packers cornerbacks

The Green Bay Packers have another talented wide receiver to contend with this week in the Lions’ Amon-Ra St. Brown. This season, St. Brown has been a favorite target of Jared Goff’s, with 130 pass attempts coming his way. He has hauled in 1,112 receiving yards, which is the 11th most among all wide receivers.

Where St. Brown makes his greatest impact isn’t downfield, however, even though he does bring big play ability. Instead, the Lions try to get him the ball quickly and in space so his playmaking can take over. Of those 130 targets, 95 have come within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, and St. Brown ranks third in the NFL in total YAC, according to Pro Football Focus. All 11 players swarming to St. Brown and sound tackling will be a must for the Packers–which are two things they’ve been much better at as of late.

The last time these two teams played, St. Brown was held to 55 yards on four receptions, but the Lions didn’t have either DJ Chark or Jameson Williams. I wrote more about their potential impacts here, but in short, both have the ability to stretch the field, which means Green Bay may have to defend the Lions and St. Brown differently this time. If they shrink the field trying to limit St. Brown’s impact underneath, it could leave them exposed over the top for a big play. On the flip side, protecting against downfield opportunities could leave St. Brown more room underneath to work with.

Packers defensive front vs. Lions offensive line

The Green Bay Packers defensive front faces a difficult challenge this week, going up against a Detroit offensive line that Joe Barry called one of the best in football. During the last nine games, where the Lions have a 7-2 record, Jared Goff has been pressured at the seventh-lowest rate in football, while the offensive line ranks sixth in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line rushing yards metric.

The play from the Packers’ defensive front has been very up and down this season, and they rank in the bottom third in both total pressures and yards per rush attempt allowed, along with being 31st in DVOA against the run. But as of late, they’ve been much better at both getting after the quarterback, with additional defenders in coverage that buys the defensive front an extra half-second to second of time to get home, as well as in the run game, with the opposing running backs over the last three games averaging around four yards per rush.

Miami and Minnesota were two very pass-heavy teams, but the Lions bring a more balanced approach. So if the Packers play to stop St. Brown, Chark, and Williams, Detroit will happily run the ball with the explosive D’Andre Swift, who is averaging 5.6 yards per carry, and Jamaal Williams, who leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns. In Week 9, the Packers held Williams to 3.4 yards per rush on 24 attempts, but again, they were able to somewhat condense the field.

Something worth monitoring prior to kickoff is that Lions’ center Frank Ragnow is listed as questionable after not practicing on Wednesday or Thursday and then being a limited participant on Friday. Without Ragnow, Kenny Clark and the Packers’ interior defensive line will again be up aginst a backup center as they were this past week.

Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon v. Lions run defense

If you’ve read my work before, then you’ve seen me discuss the importance of the run game to the Packers’ success–so I’ll keep the explanation short this time. Since the Dallas game, the Packers have six games where they’ve scored at least 24 points, and in five of them, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon have over 100 rushing yards at nearly five yards per attempt.

However, in the previous matchup between the Packers and Lions, Detroit did an excellent job of containing the Green Bay run game, with Jones and Dillon totaling 59 yards at not even three yards per attempt. In this game, the Lions played very aggressively, loading the box, pressing the Green Bay receivers, and basically daring them to throw the ball. Aaron Rodgers tried with 43 pass attempts, but at that point anyways, the passing game wasn’t good enough to handle that workload.

Since then, however, we’ve seen the emergence of Christian Watson, who will have a big impact on how the Lions defend the Packers this time around. If Detroit takes a similar approach, they are very much in danger of getting beat for a big play. Likely, we will see them protect against that more, which should open up opportunities in the run game then for Jones and Dillon.

Although it didn’t look like it the first time around, the Lions do have statistically one of the worst run defenses in football.