5 Things to Know about Packers Week 18 opponent the Detroit Lions
By Paul Bretl
The last time these two teams met back in Week 9, the Green Bay Packers offense hit its low point in the season, scoring only nine points against statistically one of the worst defenses in football. This included Aaron Rodgers throwing several interceptions, the run game struggling to get going, and an ineffective team inside the red zone.
Both teams seemed to be trending in opposite directions, as the Packers had lost their fifth in a row, while for the Lions, this was the start of them winning seven of their next nine games.
However, here we are in Week 18, with potentially both teams fighting for the final playoff spot in the NFC. For Green Bay, it is win and in. For Detroit, they need a little help with a Seattle loss earlier in the day.
Although the Lions certainly aren’t an unfamiliar opponent to the Packers or their fans, they do look like quite a different team since these two teams last met, when Detroit was just 1-6 at the time. So to help familiarize yourself with the 2022 Lions, here are five things you need to know.
Quarterback pressures and a blitz-heavy Lions defense
The Detroit Lions’ ability — or inability — to pressure Aaron Rodgers in this game will be important. If Rodgers has time, he should be able to find success in the passing game against this Lions secondary.
Overall, Detroit has generated the 11th most pressures in the NFL, led by rookie Aidan Hutchinson, who ranks 21st in total pressures among all edge rushers, along with fellow rookie edge rusher James Houston, who has 15 pressures and eight sacks despite not making his NFL debut until Week 12. However, the Lions also rank sixth in blitz rate this season, and Rodgers has been incredibly efficient when blitzed.
I dive into greater detail here, but in short, Rodgers has completed 66% of his 137 pass attempts when blitzed in 2022, averaging 7.3 yards per attempt with eight touchdowns to two interceptions, according to Pro Football Focus. The last blitz-heavy team the Packers faced was Miami, and Rodgers picked them apart.
Lions’ home and away splits
Zach Kruse of Packers Wire recently took a closer look at the Lions’ home vs. road splits. In terms of record, this isn’t a terribly different team, with Detroit posting a 5-4 record at home along with being 3-4 on the road. However, the underlying numbers tell a different story.
Zach dives deeper into the discrepancies here, but a few notable categories include the lions averaging 33.1 points per game at Ford Field and 19.3 points on the road. They have three more turnovers away from home despite playing one less game, while Jared Goff’s passer rating goes from 109.3 to 87.6. Even the run game takes a somewhat significant step backward, averaging 1.3 fewer yards per carry when away.
As we all know, this game will be played at Lambeau Field.
A high-powered offense for the Packers to contend with
This is a Detroit offense that has the ability to put up points in a hurry. The Lions’ 27.1 points per game is the fifth most in football this season. Goff, meanwhile, is averaging 7.6 yards per pass attempt, the sixth most this season. On the ground, the Lions are averaging 4.6 yards per attempt. Overall, the offense ranks sixth in DVOA.
Sparked by schematic changes by Joe Barry, which has resulted in more consistent pressure on the quarterback, along with better communication on the back end, that has led to fewer big plays and more turnovers, the Packers have been playing their best football of the season defensively, and their last six quarters have been downright dominant.
A defense that can give up a lot of points
Although Green Bay was only able to muster nine points in their first matchup with the Lions, this has been a defense that has largely struggled this season. While the Detroit offense can put up points in a hurry, their defense can give them up quickly as well.
The 25.7 points per game that they are allowing is tied for the third-most. Detroit also ranks 30th in yards per rush allowed and 31st in yards per pass attempt. By DVOA, the Lions’ defense as a whole ranks 28th.
In Week 9, the Lions loaded the box and jammed the Green Bay receivers often, basically daring the Packers to throw the ball. This was prior to Christian Watson’s emergence, so the passing game wasn’t equipped to be needed that heavily, and Detroit was able to take away the run game in the process with their aggressive approach.
My guess is that we don’t see the Lions playing as aggressively this time around because of Watson’s big play ability, not to mention that the Packers were also without Romeo Doubs in that game as well after he was injured early on. In addition to a lackluster run and passing game, Rodgers had arguably his worst game of the season while still dealing with a thumb injury, and the Packers were also 0-4 in the red zone–although issues inside the 20-yard line have been persistent all season as opponents force Green Bay to pass the ball.
Another explosive receiver for the Packers to deal with
After having to contend with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Justin Jefferson, the Packers’ defense now has to worry about Amon-Ra St. Brown. This season, Brown has the 11th most receiving yards in the NFL, and the bulk of his targets have come within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, getting him the ball quickly and in space, allowing his YAC ability to take over.
As already alluded to, the Packers’ defense has been very good as of late. There are several factors, including Barry playing more cover-6, which puts an extra defender in coverage and provides safety help to the offense’s strong side of the field. This also has helped create more pressures, with quarterbacks holding the ball longer because there is nowhere to go. Green Bay’s usage of cover-2 has increased as well to take away the big play.
The end result has been a more aggressive and cohesive unit that has limited explosive plays and put defenders in better positions to make plays on the ball, which has led to more turnovers, along with more defenders in the area to limit YAC with more sound tackling.