Packers run game again paves path to success for offense

It certainly wasn’t a flashy performance by the Green Bay Packers offense, but it was effective and efficient.

When the clock hit triple zeros in the fourth quarter, Aaron Rodgers had just 159 passing yards, and Green Bay averaged just 5.2 yards per play as an offense. For some context, that would rank 24th over the course of the 2022 NFL season. However, the Packers also had 41 points, 27 of which were scored by the offense, and the ground game was the catalyst behind their success.

As I had mentioned before the game, Minnesota runs a similar defensive game plan as the Los Angeles Rams, which is a version of the ever-growing Vic Fangio-style system. So like the Rams, the Vikings spent much of the game in two-high, which takes away the big passing plays.

Rodgers would try to push the ball downfield on a few occasions to Christian Watson but was unable to connect. Rodgers’ longest pass of the day was the 24-yard touchdown to Robert Tonyan, but other than that, he had one play of 16 yards to Allen Lazard and three that went for 11 yards. With the Vikings taking away the deep ball, there were options for Rodgers underneath, towards the sidelines, or on check downs, but not much else.

When it comes to attacking a cover-2 defense, however, one of the better ways to do so is with a heavy dose of the run game and attacking those lighter boxes, which the Packers did. Aaron Jones would finish the game with 111 yards on 14 carries with a long of 31 yards, while AJ Dillon had 12 carries for 41 yards. As a team, the Packers averaged almost five yards per rush and totaled 163 yards on the ground.

"“I thought offensively, our physicality up front showed as well,” said Matt LaFleur after the game. “It wasn’t just our offensive line, but our tight ends, our receivers, they all contributed, they were all blocking really, really well. Our backs were running hard and that was obviously a key to us being successful tonight.”"

Much like the Rams game, it wasn’t an overly dominating performance by the Packers’ offense, but it was encouraging to see them take what was available in the passing game and exploit the matchup with the run game.

Without question, Christian Watson’s emergence has played a major role in the Packers’ offense turning things around over the last seven games. That home run ability, coupled with a strong run game, makes life very challenging for opposing defenses because they simply can’t defend both. However, as Adam Stenavich would mention recently, Green Bay’s success begins with the run game.

Since the Packers last faced Detroit in Week 9, they have only two games where the offense scored below 24 points. One came against the Lions, where Green Bay scored just nine points, and the other Tennessee, where they scored 17. On the ground in those two games, Jones and Dillon rushed for just 112 yards at 2.9 yards per attempt.

On the flip side, in the other six games where the Packers’ offense is averaging 26.7 points per game, which over the course of the season would rank fifth in the NFL, Jones and Dillon have totaled 768 rushing yards — or 128 yards per game — at nearly five yards per carry.

The one exception was a week ago against Miami, where the blitz-heavy Dolphins held Jones and Dillon to just 3.5 yards per rush, but Green Bay still scored 26 points, thanks to four takeaways by the defense. But, for the most part, as the run game goes, so does the offense.

The last time the Packers and Lions met, as already alluded to, Detroit did a very good job of slowing the Packers run game. They did so by daring Green Bay to throw the ball the entire game, which means they shrunk the field with a lot of heavy boxes and press coverage. However, the Lions may not be so willing to do that this time around, with the way Watson is playing and impacting games.

Overall, this is a Lions defense that is allowing 5.3 yards per rush and they rank 26th in run defense by DVOA. Opportunities to move the ball on the ground should be there for Green Bay.