Final Thoughts: Packers try to keep playoff hopes alive vs. Vikings

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - SEPTEMBER 11: Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers stands at the line of scrimmage before a play in the third quarter of the game against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on September 11, 2022 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)
MINNEAPOLIS, MN - SEPTEMBER 11: Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers stands at the line of scrimmage before a play in the third quarter of the game against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on September 11, 2022 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit

As part of my one last look at the Green Bay Packers’ upcoming matchup with the Minnesota Vikings, I have my final thoughts, where I discuss a variety of topics, covering just about everything you need to know about this game.

– There is a lot of potential playmaking ability that the Packers may be without today against Minnesota. Both Keisean Nixon and Christian Watson are questionable. Nixon has been a difference-maker on special teams, regularly giving the offense shorter fields to work with. Watson, meanwhile, provides a home run threat that other pass catchers can’t; he opens up opportunities for others with the attention he draws and has altered how opponents defend the Packers.

– Something to watch on defense if Nixon can’t play is last week, we saw Innis Gaines, Darnell Savage, and even De’Vondre Campbell lined up in the slot.

Savage came off the bench against Miami in the second half and played really well, said Joe Barry. A big part of his success was sound communication on the back end, something that has troubled him for much of the season. A few weeks ago, Jerry Gray said that Savage being benched could be week to week and wasn’t permanent. I think we will see him starting against the Vikings with how well he played last Sunday.

– Slowing Justin Jefferson begins with pressuring Kirk Cousins. If the Green Bay defenders have to routinely defend Jefferson for three or four seconds, it’s going to be a long day. However, getting to Cousins is only half the battle; disrupting him is the other. Cousins does a really good job of hanging in the pocket and taking those hits. He ranks among the best in yards per attempt when under duress.

– I’m going to guess we see a bit more of Jaire Alexander on Jefferson in specific situations and hopefully a little more press coverage, but Barry has made it clear that the Packers are a zone coverage team, so I don’t expect Alexander to strictly follow him around. Truthfully, if the Packers are going to limit the big plays, it begins with better communication in the secondary. If you recall, many of the explosive plays allowed in Week 1 were due to coverage breakdowns. It doesn’t matter what Barry has dialed up if that’s going to happen again.

– It’s not only Jefferson who can cause problems either. Dalvin Cook ranks top 10 in rushing yards, while TJ Hockenson is in the top five in receiving yards among tight ends. There is also Adam Thielen and KJ Osborn at receiver as well.

– One big difference between this matchup and what we saw in Week 1 is going to be the Packers’ offensive line configuration, as they will have their preferred five on the field, whereas the first time around, they were without David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins, while Royce Newman and Jake Hanson started on the right side. Aaron Rodgers was pressured a whopping 20 times, according to PFF, and as a result, he looked uncomfortable in the pocket. Za’Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter have been two of the best edge rushers in creating pressures, but overall, this is a Vikings defense that hasn’t generated pressure at a high rate.

– Under defensive coordinator Ed Donatell, the Vikings run a Vic Fangio-style defense. So similarly to what the Rams did, I would expect a lot of cover-2 and quarters coverage to limit the big passing play. Minnesota also doesn’t blitz much, which means Rodgers and the offense will likely have to be patient and take what’s available. With that said, this is a Vikings secondary that is allowing the second-most yards per pass attempt this season and has struggled against play-action.

– The run game will, of course, be important for the Packers. For one, everything in this offense builds off a successful run game, but on top of that, when it comes to potentially getting the Vikings to break out of that two-high look, running the ball can be an effective way of doing so. Also, controlling the time of possession will keep an explosive Vikings offense on the sidelines.

– Green Bay’s offense is averaging 26.5 points per game over the last six games. They’ll have a chance to continue building upon that momentum against a Vikings defense that is allowing 24.9 points per game this season, has been susceptible against the pass, as already mentioned, and ranks below league average against the run by DVOA and yards per rush attempt.

– Kick returner Kene Nwangwu has the potential to be a game-changer for the Vikings. He, along with Nixon, has been one of the most explosive kick return men in the NFL this season. He is also the reason why the Packers elevated kicker Ramiz Ahmed from the practice squad to handle kickoffs. Although Mason Crosby has been solid on field goals yet, a league-high 50 of his kickoffs have been returned because they don’t reach the end zone. Ahmed will hopefully limited Nwangwu’s opportunities. Tyler Goodson was elevated as well–he does have kick return experience from the preseason.

– Many eyes will be on Devonte Wyatt, who will have more opportunities without Dean Lowry available, but about two-thirds of Lowry’s snaps came against the run, so this also means more chances for TJ Slaton.

– In addition to hoping for losses from Washington and New York, also root for the Saints over the Eagles. If the Eagles win, they clinch the one seed and the NFC East, giving them and Dallas nothing to play for in Week 18. The reason that this matters is because Philadelphia plays New York, and Dallas plays Washington next week.

Prediction: Packers 30 – Vikings 27