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Packers updated playoff odds after win over Dolphins

By Brian Sampson

Dec 25, 2022; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Green Bay Packers cornerback Rasul Douglas (29) celebrates with teammates after intercepting a pass from Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (not pictured) during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 25, 2022; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Green Bay Packers cornerback Rasul Douglas (29) celebrates with teammates after intercepting a pass from Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (not pictured) during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports /
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Everything that needed to go right, did go right for the Green Bay Packers in Week 16.

So many teams needed to win on Saturday that I was carrying around a checklist about who needed to beat who and when. You could’ve also checked out my article outlining the five teams Green Bay needed to win.

The Kansas City Chiefs handily beat the slumping Seattle Seahawks on Saturday. The loss (combined with Green Bay’s win) moved the two teams into a tie at 7-8. Due to a complex set of tie-breakers, the Seahawks shouldn’t pose a threat to Green Bay as long as the Packers do what they need to.

The Minnesota Vikings continued their exciting season by nailing a 61-yard game-winning field goal attempt as time expired to beat the New York Giants. The Packers are unlikely to catch New York, but at least that possibility still exists.

Here are the Green Bay Packers’ most up-to-date playoff odds following their victory over the Miami Dolphins on Christmas Day.

The Carolina Panthers woke up and defeated the hot Detroit Lions. The Lions and Packers play each other in the final week, but it’s nice to see them lose another game. Carolina can somehow win the NFC South if they win out.

The Dallas Cowboys also defeated the Philadelphia Eagles in a shootout. Although Green Bay isn’t going to catch either team, it was one step closer to ensuring they each have something to play for in Week 18. The Eagles play the Giants and the Cowboys play Washington–Green Bay could very well need one or both of those teams to lose to get into the playoffs.

The big result was Washington losing again, this time to the San Francisco 49ers. Washington is Green Bay’s best chance at catching someone, as they hold the final playoff spot at 7-7-1. They still need to lose at least one more game (they play the Cleveland Browns next week and then the Cowboys).

All of that would’ve been for naught if the Packers wouldn’t have beaten Miami on Christmas Day. It was an ugly game and the Packers tried like heck to shoot themself in the foot. At the end of the game, they made enough plays to walk away with a W.

Entering the week, they had an eight percent chance to make the playoffs. With all of the pieces falling into place, they begin this week with a 27 percent chance according to FiveThirtyEight.

They don’t control their own destiny, yet, as they still need some help. First, they need to win out–that’s a tall task considering they still play the Vikings and Lions. Next, they need Washington to lose at least one game OR the Giants to lose both games. If those results happen, the Packers are suddenly playoff bound.

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