Packers Path to Playoffs: 49ers provide big boost with win over Seahawks
By Paul Bretl
The Green Bay Packers’ path to the playoffs looks a little bit rosier than what it did a week ago. The latest boost they received came on Thursday night with San Francisco’s win over Seattle.
Of course, step one for the Packers when it comes to making the playoffs is winning out, which is no small feat given how this season has gone, but they need a lot of help as well. However, if Green Bay does win their final four games, their odds of making the playoffs sits at 57%, according to FiveThirtyEight. With a Seattle win over the Niners, those odds would have dropped to 39%. But following the Niners’ victory, the Packers’ chances of making the playoffs if they win their final four games jumps to 75%.
Winning out puts the Packers at 9-8 on the season. At the moment, even with Seattle’s most recent loss, they are still 7-7. So Green Bay needs one more loss from the Seahawks in their final three games to match records. Seattle finishes their season at Kansas City, home for the Jets, and home against the Rams.
The reason that this victory from the 49ers was so important is that the Packers now have the tiebreaker over Seattle with the better overall NFC record–again, assuming Green Bay wins out.
While this recent outcome was very much important for Green Bay, it’s not the only help that they need. Both the New York Giants and Washington Commanders are 7-5-1 this season. In addition to Seattle losing one more game, the Packers need either the Giants or Commanders to finish 1-3 on the season, which would put them at 8-8-1, behind Green Bay in the win-loss column.
New York ends the year at Washington, at Minnesota, home for Indianapolis, and at Philadelphia. The Commanders, meanwhile, take on the Giants at home, travel to San Francisco, then end at home against Cleveland and Dallas.
One other team to keep your eyes on is Detroit. If the Packers win out, that will include a victory over the Lions. If we assume Detroit wins their other three games outside of that one, both teams would finish 9-8. After several tiebreakers, the Packers would get the playoff spot based on current strength of victory, although that could potentially fluctuate based on how the remaining NFL games go across the league. So to be safe, root for one more Lions’ loss in addition to the Packers game.
Again, all of this becomes a moot point if the Packers don’t take care of their own business first. However, their path to the playoffs is becoming a bit more clear as they get some welcomed help, play three of their last four games at Lambeau Field, while the offense has been picking up some steam over the last month.