Milwaukee Bucks mailbag: Starters when Khris Middleton returns

The Milwaukee Bucks racked up their 15th win in 20 games on Wednesday night when they defeated the pesky New York Knicks. That puts them in second place in the Eastern Conference and the second-best record in the NBA.

Milwaukee survived the first quarter of the season while missing several key pieces. Pat Connaughton only just returned, Joe Ingles is still out and Khris Middleton should be ready to go soon (more on him later!). Mike Budenholzer deserves a lot of credit for the work he’s done.

I turned to you all on Twitter to ask what questions you have surrounding the Bucks and I’ll answer those below. The topics include offensive effectiveness, tweaking the roster, salary cap situation heading into next year and the starting lineup when Middleton finally returns. Without further ado, let’s dive in!

A Milwaukee Bucks’ mailbag with questions about what will the starting lineup look like when Khris Middleton returns, ideas to tweak the roster, and more.

There aren’t any direct stats tied to who brings the ball up/runs the offense, as that varies dramatically. Especially on a team like the Bucks that thrives as “equal opportunity.”

I believe the heart of the question is getting at a lack of passing and ball movement and an influx of isolation basketball. That we can dive into. After ranking fourth in the frequency of isolation plays at 9.8 possessions per game last year, Milwaukee has plummeted all the way to 23rd this season at 6.1 possessions per game.

There are a bunch of other stats available about touches, passes made, passes received, dribbles per touch, seconds per touch, etc. I won’t bore you with all of those details, but in comparing this year’s offense to last year’s, the main theme is they are moving the ball a lot more. They ranked dead-last in passes made last season and have increased that by 20. They still have work to do for sure, but it’s an improvement from previous years.

The Bucks’ most valuable and realistic trade chips include George Hill, Jordan Nwora and Grayson Allen, with a bevy of second-round picks. Nobody is going to trade for Hill or Nwora alone–they are simply salary fillers in any potential deal. Allen has been discussed ad nauseam in a trade for Jae Crowder, but it doesn’t appear the Phoenix Suns have an interest in a one-for-one swap.

I would leave the roster as is for right now. There are pros and cons to trading Allen for Crowder, and I’m leaning toward the side of keeping Allen. Milwaukee just got Connaughton back with Middleton rumored to be back on Friday and Ingles sometime around Christmas. Those are huge reinforcements for a team that is on a 61-62 win pace without them.

With the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes set to heat up as the season progresses, Milwaukee should be patient with their trade assets. I believe good players will become available at cheap costs, as teams try to sink down the standings and improve their chances of obtaining the franchise difference-maker.

Looking into the future already, Mr. Bodozer? The Bucks will have a few key decisions to make in the offseason, but nothing franchise-altering. Middleton has a player option and is eligible to sign a contract extension. That will be fascinating to watch play out and we’ll see if he goes for another max contract or returns on a team-friendly deal.

The free agents include Brook Lopez, Joe Ingles, George Hill, Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Wes Matthews, and Serge Ibaka. Several of those players could retire and walk into the sunset if the setting is right. Lopez is the biggest name, but Milwaukee shouldn’t have any trouble re-signing him. They have his bird rights and can go over the cap to re-sign him.

Milwaukee will also have a few tools available to them to bring in new pieces: The taxpayer midlevel exception (worth up to $22.1 million over three years) and veteran minimum deals. The biggest question is how much the owners are willing to spend into the luxury tax.

As for your second question, yes, the Bucks are best set up to win now or as soon as possible. That has less to do with the contract situation than the aging roster. Giannis Antetokounmpo is squarely in his prime, but his supporting cast is getting old fast. Lopez, Middleton, and Jrue Holiday are all on the wrong side of 30. This iteration will be known as the first edition surrounding Antetokounmpo before the Bucks have to reload for the second half of his career.

Budenholzer will have a difficult question to answer when Middleton returns (hopefully, this Friday!). The Bucks’ starting lineup of Holiday-Carter-Allen-Antetokounmpo-Lopez has been smoking teams by 21.6 points per 100 possessions so far this season.

Milwaukee could go two different directions–insert Middleton for Carter or for Allen. I believe they’ll go with the latter.

Carter and Holiday are a great defensive backcourt and thrive off each other. They can lock down the opponent’s best two ballhandlers every single night. Carter also requires the ball less on offense, which will play into a unit featuring Holiday, Middleton and Antetokounmpo.

With Allen moving to the second unit, he can form a dynamic offensive duo with Bobby Portis. The two can run the offense and allow Budenholzer to feel more comfortable with some of his stars on the bench. Their offense has been putrid to begin the season, so adding a scoring punch off the bench would be a welcomed addition.