Third downs doom the Packers on both sides of the ball
By Paul Bretl
The Green Bay Packers entered Week 12 against Philadelphia as a respectable third-down team on both sides of the ball. The offense was ranked slightly above average at 14th in success rate, while the defense was in the top 10 in terms of forcing fourth down. However, both units were abysmal in these situations on Sunday night, and it played a huge role in determining the outcome.
Offensively, the Packers found a lot of success moving the football, and it began with the ground game. There were huge running lanes for Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, and this success helped open up play-action and create for the passing game. Overall, the Packers scored 33 points — just their second time this season scoring more than 30 — and averaged 7.0 yards per play.
With that said, all of that success came on the early downs because once the Packers got to third down, they were lost. Green Bay finished the game 1-7 on third downs, and it wasn’t until Jordan Love was in the game late in the fourth quarter that they got their first conversion. When the Packers got behind the sticks and found themselves in obvious passing situations, their offense — and the offensive line — crumbled against a stout pass rush and an aggressive secondary.
On defense, a week after slowing Derrick Henry, the Packers had no answers for Miles Sanders and Jalen Hurts. In fact, to put it simply, they looked completely unprepared.
The Eagles ran for a whopping 363 yards while averaging 7.4 yards per carry. To Green Bay’s credit, and despite Philadelphia’s success on the ground, they did a good job of putting the Eagles in several third and long situations, but unfortunately, that didn’t much matter. Hurts either broke contain and rushed for the first down, or there was a breakdown in coverage that allowed the Eagles to move the chains that way.
Missed tackles were also a killer for the Packers on third downs, and in general, with Matt LaFleur mentioning afterward that his staff accounted for 15 in total–which honestly seems to be on the light side as bad as that is. Overall, the Eagles were 8-15 on third downs and 2-3 on fourth downs against Green Bay, which was above their already impressive 46% conversion rate prior to Sunday’s contest.
As a result of the Packers’ inability to either move the chains or get off the field, the Eagles held the ball for an additional 11-plus minutes and ran an absurd 80 plays to Green Bay’s 49. Honestly, the fact that the Packers kept this close and only lost by a touchdown is somewhat impressive, given the discrepancy in the number of plays ran. This difference can very much result in a blowout.
Oftentimes NFL games are determined by situational football. Can you keep your opponent out of the end zone while taking advantage of your red zone opportunities? And can you move the chains offensively while getting off the field on defense? The Packers did well inside the Eagles’ 20-yard line but they didn’t come even remotely close to finding success on the latter.