Lions run game & downfield passing game a bad combination for Packers
By Paul Bretl
The Detroit Lions’ offense has been very effective on the ground this season, and they also like to push the ball downfield. This is a bad combination for the Green Bay Packers’ underperforming defense.
Behind a stout offensive line, the Lions running backs are averaging 5.2 yards per carry this season, good for the fourth-best rate in football. Jared Goff, meanwhile, ranks tied for ninth in pass attempts of 20-plus yards, according to PFF ($$).
At its core, Joe Barry’s defense is predicated on taking away the big passing play. This means playing a lot of cover-2, which is susceptible against the run, along with lighter boxes where the safeties play important roles in run defense.
None of what I just mentioned sounds like a good thing for a Green Bay run defense that has been bad this season, ranking 31st in DVOA and allowing 4.9 yards per rush, along with being a bad tackling team, while also facing one of the NFL’s more efficient ground games this week.
Now, with that said, it’s not as if the Packers can defend against both the big passing play and the ground game at the same time–he will have to choose. However, that’s where the issue lies.
While there have been times when we’ve seen Barry make adjustments, which include allowing Jaire Alexander to follow Garrett Wilson and Terry McLaurin, along with more press coverage in recent weeks, overall, there has still been an unwillingness to deviate too far from the defensive system he’s implemented–even when it’s not working well.
If that’s the case again on Sunday, it could very well end up being a big day for Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift if he plays–he is currently listed as questionable. The threat of the Lions trying to push the ball downfield could lead to Barry really leaning into his cover-2 scheme, which leaves a porous run defense unit that will be without De’Vondre Campbell with little additional help.
With all of that said, it’s not as if the Lions don’t have players in the passing game that can hurt the Packers; they certainly do, most notably Amon-Ra St. Brown. But if the Packers are going to commit more help to the secondary or the run defense, what would you choose? I know the secondary hasn’t lived up to expectations this season, but I’d still trust these cornerbacks against the pass more so than the front seven against the run.
If the Packers stick to how they’ve defended for much of the season, this has the makings of being a frustrating game to watch, with the Lions picking up chunk runs on the ground and controlling the clock–which is going to be a key component in them coming away with the win.