3 Key Matchups the Green Bay Packers must win vs. Buffalo

The Green Bay Packers find themselves on a three-game losing streak, and things aren’t getting any easier as they are back on the road to take on a Buffalo Bills team that many consider the best in the NFL.

Winning certainly won’t be easy; in fact, the Packers are heavy underdogs. However, pulling off the upset begins with winning these three matchups.

Jaire Alexander vs. Stefon Diggs

It took a few weeks longer than we would have liked, but Joe Barry did make adjustments to the Green Bay Packers secondary. We’ve seen more press coverage, some dime personnel on third downs, and Jaire Alexander following around the opponent’s top receiver the past two weeks.

I imagine that trend will continue on Sunday night as the Packers take on the NFL’s top passing attack, which is led by Stefon Diggs at the receiver position.

Diggs has been incredibly efficient this season, catching 79% of his 62 targets at 13.4 yards per catch with six touchdowns–which is tied for the most in the NFL. He also has the second-most receiving yards and has totaled the ninth-most YAC while playing from both the slot and boundary, per PFF ($$).

Alexander is coming off a game against Washington where Terry McLaurin got the best of him on a few occasions, including a 37-yard touchdown catch and a crucial third-down conversion at the end of the game.

In addition to Diggs, the Bills have Gabe Davis as well, but slowing their passing game begins with Alexander winning this matchup. As good as this Buffalo offense is, they haven’t had a strong run game to lean on.

Josh Allen vs. Green Bay Packers edge rushers

Speaking of the Bills’ run game, Josh Allen is the team’s leading rusher with 257 yards on the ground. He’s also forced 13 missed tackles, which for some context, would rank 26th among all running backs this season.

Pressuring the quarterback is always a must, but against Allen, that doesn’t guarantee success either. For one, he’s been one of the more efficient quarterbacks when under pressure this season, averaging an impressive 8.9 yards per pass attempt. But he’s also been difficult to bring down with his ability to extend plays.

The Green Bay Packers’ edge rushers, meanwhile, have not done the best job this season at setting the edge, which has led to some big plays by the offense outside the tackle box. If they fail to set strong edges on Sunday, that will give Allen an escape route and could lead to a big play. On the flip side, if Green Bay can keep Allen in the pocket, that will hopefully provide Kenny Clark the opportunity to get home.

To counter Allen’s mobility, we could see Quay Walker utilized as a spy, and I would expect more zone coverage because, against man, there are more chances to pick up rushing yards on scramble drills.

Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon vs. the Bills’ defensive front

If the Packers are going to have any chance of winning this game, it begins with success, or at the bare minimum, consistency, on the ground.

A steady ground game allows the Packers’ offensive line to be the aggressor. It sets up play-action, where this Green Bay offense has been effective this season. It can open up the playbook and passing game for Matt LaFleur, and very importantly, it will hopefully allow the Packers to chew some clock.

Time of possession is going to play a key factor in this game. If the Packers can’t move the chains, the defense stands little chance of slowing this Bills offense if they are going to be on the field for 20-plus snaps and 15 additional minutes, as was the case a week ago.

Unfortunately, finding success on the ground won’t be easy. The Bills enter Sunday’s game allowing the fewest rushing yards per attempt this season at only 3.5. This is also a Green Bay offense that has had a tendency to abandon the run game early, and things often turn out poorly when this unit turns one-dimensional.

It’s going to be tough sledding on the ground, but sticking with the run for four quarters and giving Aaron Jones opportunities to make plays is a must.