Milwaukee Bucks’ defense should dominate Chicago Bulls in first-round playoffs

The Milwaukee Bucks relied on defense to carry them to an NBA Championship one year ago, and they’ll likely do so again in their first-round playoff matchup against the Chicago Bulls.

It’s not like their offense should have much trouble scoring against a team that lacks an elite defender outside of Alex Caruso and which ranked 22nd in points allowed per 100 possessions according to Cleaning the Glass. It’s more about what Milwaukee brings to the table when defending their hoop and how they match up with Chicago.

After shutting down the NBA during head coach Mike Budenholzer’s first two years at the helm–ranking second and first in defensive efficiency, respectively–the Bucks have taken a step back over the last two years and finished the 2021-22 campaign ranked 14th according to Cleaning the Glass. Their defensive rating of 112.0 was on par with what they experienced last year as they battled a plethora of injuries and experimented with different types of coverages.

Fortunately, they should be able to get back on track with the return of their health and a friendly matchup against the Bulls.

The Milwaukee Bucks’ defense should be able to carry them to an easy first-round series playoff victory over the Chicago Bulls.

Since the 2018-19 season when Budenholzer took over, Milwaukee has placed paint defense at the very top of their priorities list. They do whatever it takes to ensure opponents don’t get easy baskets at the rim, even if that includes over-helping and allowing a league-high 40.6 three-point attempts per game. 

Although the Bulls are an accurate three-point shooting team, they are reluctant to fire away from deep–coming in dead last by only averaging 28.8 three-pointers per game. That should play right into the Bucks’ hands, as they’ll wall off the paint and force the Bulls to take shots from deep.

DeMar DeRozan had a fantastic year and is the best player Chicago has. The Bulls will run their offense through him and Milwaukee will do their best to keep him off-balance and uncomfortable. If the regular season is any indicator, part of their strategy will be to shift their entire defense toward the middle of the court when he has the ball.

As Nikola Vucevic sets a high-ball screen near the top of the key, Brook Lopez sinks into his infamous drop coverage, preventing DeRozan from getting to his beloved mid-range. Meanwhile, Wesley Matthews is fighting through the screen while Jrue Holiday also slides over from his man on the opposite wing to wall off the free throw line. Similar to the walls that have been employed against Giannis Antetokounmpo through the years, Milwaukee wants to create a barrier for DeRozan–only they’ll have to do it at the free throw line and above.

Behind the action at the top of the key, Khris Middleton and Bobby Portis also pinch the lane by sliding onto each of the blocks as a last line of defense. This leaves multiple Bulls shooters open which is exactly what Milwaukee wants.

Ayo Dosunmu (number 12) only made 38.4 percent of his 2.3 catch-and-shoot threes per game last season. To put that into perspective, that ranked 79th among NBA players who took at least that many attempts per game in 2021-22. Alex Caruso was even worse, as he only connected on 35.6 percent of such attempts. Those are the types of guys Milwaukee wants to fire away.

Milwaukee was able to sweep the season series against the Bulls, in part, because of their ability to completely prevent Chicago from getting anywhere close to the rim. In fact, the Bucks were actually fairly successful overall in keeping the Bulls off the three-point line as well. Don’t be surprised to see Lopez, Antetokounmpo and the rest of the off-ball defenders roaming away from their man to prevent DeRozan and Zach LaVine from getting to their spots on the court.

Which circles us back to DeRozan. He put up big scoring numbers against the Bucks this season–averaging 31.3 points per game. However, it took him a lot of minutes (37.6 per game) and shots to get there. He made only 47.4 percent of his field goal attempts against them this season which was the 11th-lowest and 3 percentage points lower than his regular-season average.

Milwaukee also has a number of capable bodies they can throw at him who can adequately defend him and give him different looks throughout the series. Wesley Matthews will almost certainly get the starting nod once again and be tasked solely with pestering him during his time on the court. Matthews has a good balance of strength, size, and basketball I.Q. to make life tough on DeRozan for 20ish minutes per game.

There will be plenty of time, however, when Matthews is on the bench and DeRozan is on the court. That’s when Jrue Holiday, primarily, and Khris Middleton, secondarily, can step up to the plate. Holiday is the Bucks’ best perimeter defender and they’ll probably save him for the big moments down the stretch.

Regardless of who is on DeRozan, the Bucks will continue to take a team approach to stop him and his teammates. Take a peek at the picture below where three Bucks’ help-defenders slide to the paint as DeRozan and Vucevic run a two-man game on the right wing.

The Bucks haven’t been able to meet their usual defensive standards throughout the regular season, but they have all the necessary tools to shut down the Bulls in their first-round playoff series and return to elite status.

With the likes of Lopez, Antetokounmpo and Holiday locked in, don’t be surprised to see this series ending in a quick and brutal fashion.