Predicting Milwaukee Bucks’ Playoff Rotation vs Miami Heat
The Milwaukee Bucks took the courageous road when they defeated the Miami Heat last Saturday night, basically ensuring a first-round playoff matchup against the squad that sent them packing in last year’s playoffs. They could’ve easily pulled a Clippers and rested their starters to dramatically increase their odds of seeing another team in the opening round. Instead, here we are.
The Bucks and Heat tip-off their series and the entire postseason on Saturday at 1 pm CT. The Bucks’ legacy is on the line in many ways, especially the future and job security of head coach Mike Budenholzer. But that’s a conversation for another day.
In order to prep us for the tough road that lies ahead, I made some predictions about what the Bucks’ rotation will look like against Miami. The rotation isn’t necessarily a prediction about what the average minutes will say at the end of the series. Rather, it’s what the minutes should look like in a close, contested game from tip to the final buzzer.
With the Milwaukee Bucks set to tip-off against the Miami Heat in the first round of the 2021 NBA Playoffs, let’s peek at their rotation.
Rotation
Heavy Lifting: 37-40 minutes
Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo
There’s absolutely no reason for Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo to play anything less than 37 minutes in a tightly contested game. And that’s probably being conservative. Milwaukee needs their Big 3 to outplay Miami’s trio of Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and whichever random is sure to step up and shoot 75 percent from behind the arc. And they need to be on the court in order to outplay the Heat.
Budenholzer ensured at least one of his top guys was on the court at all times in the regular season. He needs to play at least two of them together in the playoffs. It helps they are all compatible and play extremely well together–Holiday and Antetokounmpo had the Bucks’ best net rating among two-man lineups to play at least 500 minutes at 11.7, Middleton and Antetokounmpo came in at 9.9, and Holiday and Middleton were a 9.1. Keep. These. Dudes. On. The. Floor.
Starting Big: 28 minutes
Brook Lopez
I waxed and waned with Brook Lopez. He has obvious limitations to his game that can and will be exploited by the Heat’s offense. They’ll target him in the pick-and-roll and dribble-handoff game and force him to come out to the three-point line when defending the non-shooting Bam Adebayo. If Lopez is slow to react it could result in another open-gym shooting performance from Miami.
On the other hand, his rim protection is elite and he’ll allow the Bucks’ guards and wings to go all out while defending the perimeter knowing they have the big guy behind them. Opponents shot just 49.3 percent within six feet of the hoop when Lopez was defending–third-lowest (only behind Rudy Gobert and Myles Turner) among the 16 players who contest at least 400 such shots this season.
Miami will likely try to match up a smaller guy on him and move Adebayo to Antetokounmpo. Lopez has been preparing for this by moving inside the arc in recent weeks and getting back to a similar version of his post-game that led him to being selected to an All-Star team. If he can punish Miami for putting someone like Trevor Ariza on him down low, it would immensely help his ability to stay on the floor. I’ll also admit there’s a world where Budenholzer relies much more heavily on P.J. Tucker and Bobby Portis at the five-spot.
Guard Rotation: 60 combined minutes
Donte DiVincenzo, Bryn Forbes and Pat Connaughton
To be honest, I’m not exactly sure how this guard trio will play out against the Heat. I think Budenholzer will end up riding the hot hand on offense.
Donte DiVincenzo will get the first crack at playing heavy-ish minutes. He’s broken out of a mid-season slump from behind the arc and made 40 percent of his threes in May after only connecting on 33.3 percent in April. The Heat are going to help big-time off him so if he can continue to knock those down it will go a long way toward him staying on the floor.
We all know Bryn Forbes is going to make threes. That’s why he was brought to Milwaukee. He’s made at least two threes in 10 of his last 11 games and will need to keep that up against a Heat team that will either go zone or build a wall against Antetokounmpo. The Bucks will have to try to hide him defensively if he’s to play north of 15-20 minutes.
Pat Connaughton is the wildcard. He’s a Bud guy through and through and doesn’t contribute much when it comes to the box score. However, he’ll make the hustle plays and is a more versatile defender than the other two. He’s also quietly knocking down 37.1 percent of his threes.
Bigs Rotation: 38 combined minutes
P.J. Tucker and Bobby Portis
Budenholzer will mix and match Tucker and Portis similar to his guard rotation. These two guys are extremely different which will allow the Bucks to go with the flow of the game.
Tucker was acquired so the Bucks could run a switching defense. His intensity is palpable, even from the tv screen. He knows his role and will provide the Bucks with an energy level and swagger they’ve been missing in the past two postseasons.
Speaking of swagger, Bobby “Gets Buckets” Portis will do exactly what his nickname suggests and then let you know about it. Expect him to be involved in some tussles. Miami will target him in the pick-and-roll game on defense–an area he’s struggled mightily all season. Lastly, don’t be surprised if their minutes increase in the event Lopez gets exploited.