Sadly, instead of discussing an upcoming Super Bowl matchup between the Green Bay Packers and the Kansas City Chiefs, we are moving on to the offseason. And one of the bigger storylines this offseason includes how teams are going to manage what is likely a shrinking salary cap.
Prior to the 2020 season beginning, the NFL and NFLPA agreed to potentially reduce the salary cap as low as $175 million in 2021 because of COVID-19 and the lack of fans in the stands. This would be down significantly from the $198.2 million it was at this year.
Now, this doesn’t mean that the cap will fall to $175 million; it could be anywhere in between. And if you’re looking for some good news, Bill Huber of Sports Illustrated recently posted an article suggesting that the salary cap may be closer to $198 million than the $175 million floor.
However, for the time being, this is only speculation, and in all likelihood, the Green Bay Packers are going to have to make some difficult decisions this offseason to create cap space. And that means veteran cuts.
When looking at the Packers’ 2021 roster on Spotrac, there are four players in particular who didn’t necessarily have the best 2020 seasons and come with bigger cap hits than dead cap hits.
For those unfamiliar with those terms, the cap hit is what’s on the books for that season and counts towards the salary cap. The dead cap hit is what’s still owed to the player from the signing bonus that has already been paid out. When the cap hit is larger than the dead cap hit, it can be advantageous for the team to move on from that player to save some cap space.
So with salary cap guru Ken Ingalls projecting the Packers at $41.7 million over the 2021 salary cap, if it does in fact fall to the $175 million mark, it’s going to be a busy offseason for Brian Gutekunst and Russ Ball—which means these four players have likely played their final snaps in Green Bay.
Green Bay Packers IDL: Dean Lowry
In terms of cap savings, Lowry provides the smallest boost of the players on this list. According to Spotrac, his cap hit in 2021 is $6.3 million, and he has a dead cap hit of $3 million, thus creating an additional $3.3 million in cap space. If this was a normal year, my gut says they’d keep Lowry and add another interior defensive lineman to reduce his role. But this year, I believe Green Bay takes the additional $3.3 million instead.
Lowry was awarded a contract extension after a strong 2018 season; unfortunately, in 2019 and 2020, he didn’t make the same impact. According to Pro Football Focus ($), he totaled 21 pressures this season — the same as 2019 — but only 16 run-stops, which was down from 27.
For comparison sake to 2017, that season, Lowry had 493 defensive snaps and logged 19 pressures, three sacks, and 19 run-stops. With over 200 more snaps in 2020, his numbers were almost identical.
Ultimately, Green Bay will move on from Lowry, take the cap savings, and hopefully bring in a legitimate difference-maker or at least a younger player with more upside on a cheaper deal.
Green Bay Packers LB: Christian Kirksey
The Green Bay Packers just signed Christian Kirksey this past offseason, and unfortunately, he was again bitten by the injury bug early on. Kirksey missed Weeks 4 through 9, and upon his return, he was up and down with some tough performances mixed in.
However, in Week 15 against Carolina, the Packers made a change moving Krys Barnes to the Mike linebacker role while Kirksey became the Will. And both he and Barnes flourished in their new roles. Over the final five games — including the playoffs — Kirksey had two sacks compared to one in the previous eight games and 10 pressures compared to 11. He also had an interception and allowed only nine yards per catch on seven receptions.
And if grades are your thing, he was actually the Packers’ highest-graded defender in the NFC Championship Game by PFF’s grading system.
Yet even with the strong finish, we saw the emergence this season of the aforementioned Barnes along with Kamal Martin. And considering that linebacker is not a position that the Packers typically value very highly, I imagine that they will be just fine cutting Kirksey and saving over $5.6 million in cap space while Barnes and Martin take over with a combined cap hit in 2021 of just over $1.6 million.
Green Bay Packers OT: Rick Wagner
Like Christian Kirksey, Rick Wagner was just signed last offseason as well. And although the NFC Championship Game didn’t go well, I have to say that I was pleasantly surprised at how well Wagner played this season.
While playing mostly right tackle with some snaps at left, Wagner gave up three sacks this season — two of which came in the NFC Championship — 19 pressures and was called for just one penalty in 445 pass-blocking snaps. On top of that, he also ranked eighth among all tackles in ESPN’s pass-blocking win rate metric.
But when David Bakhtiari is back on the field, Wagner would become a backup once again with Billy Turner at right tackle. Additionally, my expectation is that the Packers are going to draft a tackle early this year. It’s a deep tackle class, and they should have the opportunity to find a swing tackle for 2021 and a hopeful starter in 2022.
By moving on from Wagner, Green Bay will save almost $4.3 million in cap space. If they were to keep him, his cap hit would be $6 million–a steep price for a likely backup.
Green Bay Packers EDGE: Preston Smith
2019 was a big season for Preston Smith, he totaled 12 sacks, which was the eighth-most in the NFL and his 62 pressures were the 15th most among edge rushers. This season, however, we didn’t see the same effectiveness. In fact, it wasn’t really close.
Smith would go on to record just four sacks during the regular season and only 26 pressures. A far cry from his production just one season ago. Over the second half of the season, in particular, we saw flashes, but the overall consistency as a pass-rusher and against the run just wasn’t there.
From a salary cap perspective, with the emergence of Rashan Gary this year, this should be a relatively easy decision for the Green Bay Packers. Smith comes with a hefty $16 million dollar cap hit in 2021 but a dead cap hit of $8 million, meaning the Packers can save $8 million by cutting him. Smith was such a key member of the 2019 team, but his play in 2020 doesn’t justify that kind of cap hit in 2021.
A Few Quick Thoughts
— Prior to the season beginning, I thought that Billy Turner would have been a cap casualty this offseason with the Packers being able to save about $3.5 million in cap space by cutting him. But his high-level of play and versatility are far too valuable–especially considering that the Packers don’t have his replacement on the roster at the moment.
— Similarly, with how the season started for Adrian Amos, I thought he could be in this same category as well, saving Green Bay about $4.5 million in cap space. But Amos really kicked it into a new gear, and like Turner, even in a year with a reduced salary cap, from a football standpoint, it doesn’t make sense for the Packers to move on from him.
— In addition to the four names that I mentioned, Devin Funchess is another name to keep your eyes on. Funchess opted out of the 2020 season, so his contract rolls over to 2021. If the Packers want to cut him, they will save about $1.3 million. The reason that I didn’t include him above is that I’m not really sure what they will do. I could see them moving on from him, but with a cap hit of only $2.36 million, I could see them keeping him as well.