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Milwaukee Brewers: Roadmap to stealing two games in Wild Card

By Kenny Jilek

SAN FRANCISCO, CA - JULY 27: Manager Craig Counsell #30 of the Milwaukee Brewers signals to the bullpen to make a pitching change against the San Francisco Giants in the bottom of the seventh innning at AT&T Park on July 27, 2015 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
SAN FRANCISCO, CA - JULY 27: Manager Craig Counsell #30 of the Milwaukee Brewers signals to the bullpen to make a pitching change against the San Francisco Giants in the bottom of the seventh innning at AT&T Park on July 27, 2015 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) /
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Milwaukee Brewers
Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) /

Game Two

This is the one that they absolutely NEED to have if they want a shot at winning this series. Brandon Woodruff pitched eight stellar innings on Saturday to propel the Brewers into playoff position. They’ll need a similar performance from him on Thursday.

If Woodruff goes out before the sixth inning, this game is probably over anyway because this Brewer offense had a hard enough time scoring runs in the regular season, much less the playoffs against one of the best pitching staffs in the league. Therefore, we’ll only really look at the late innings of this game.

Analytics usually tell us that pitchers going through the order for a third time is when things go bad for pitchers. However, the opponent OPS for Woodruff on their third plate appearance of the game is .679. For context, the Brewers team OPS this season is .709. Woodruff throws hard enough and mixes his pitches so well that guys are still going to the plate, confused their third time up. Ideally, he pitches a complete game, but seven or eight innings is a good milestone that’s lofty, yet realistic.

If he gets through six and it’s time to pull the plug, they need to find a way to get three innings worth of outs. Then, it mostly will depend on how much they had leaned on Williams and Hader the night before. If the Dodgers win game one in a blowout, then game two can be two innings of one of them and one inning of the other. There still needs to be some energy saved for game three if game one is lost.

Woodruff getting to the seventh and being able to only pitch Williams and Hader one inning each would be great for a potential game three. If he does that or goes longer and the Brewers go on to win the game and the series, this will go down in Milwaukee Brewers’ history as the Brandon Woodruff game.

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