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Three matchups to watch in Bucks vs Heat Playoff series

By Kenny Jilek

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - OCTOBER 26: Bam Adebayo #13 of the Miami Heat dribbles the ball while being guarded by Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks in the second quarter at the Fiserv Forum on October 26, 2019 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - OCTOBER 26: Bam Adebayo #13 of the Miami Heat dribbles the ball while being guarded by Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks in the second quarter at the Fiserv Forum on October 26, 2019 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /
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Milwaukee Bucks, Wesley Matthews
Tyler Herro, Miami Heat, Brook Lopez and Wesley Matthews, Milwaukee Bucks, NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /

Milwaukee Defenders vs. Miami Shooters

The Miami Heat have shooters and that’s a big part of why they beat the Bucks twice in three meetings in the regular season. In their first win in March, they shot a modest 36.4 percent from three-point range, hitting 16 of 44 attempts. In their win on March 2nd, however, they put on a three-point shooting clinic, knocking down 18 of 37 attempts, good for 48.6 percent. The first number is repeatable over the course of a series, the second is not.

Overall, the Heat have about seven guys that could be classified as shooters: Duncan Robinson, Kendrick Nunn, Goran Dragic, Jae Crowder, Tyler Herro, Meyers Leonard, and Kelly Olynyk. However, Robinson, Crowder, and Herro are the three guys to really look out for.

Herro knocked down 38.9 percent of his threes on 5.4 attempts per game in the regular season. Crowder is even better at 44.5 percent on 6.4 attempts per game, but the real three-point bomber is Duncan Robinson who is shooting 44.6 percent on an absurd 8.3 three-point attempts per game.

Robinson can get off a three-point shot in tons of different ways. He can spot up on the three-point line while one of his teammates drives to draw his defender away from him. He’ll get multiple off-ball screens to get open catch-and-shoot opportunities. He can take a handoff and use the guy who gave him the ball as a screen. He doesn’t shoot off the dribble much in terms of creating his own shots, but he’ll take another dribble to get open if his defender is running him off the three-point line, similar to what Kyle Korver does for the Bucks. Getting out to him in every one of those scenarios is extremely important.

The other big concern other than Robinson is their stretch bigs. Thankfully, Bam Adebayo hasn’t really developed a three-point shot yet, but guys like Jae Crowder, Meyers Leonard, and Kelly Olynyk can all shoot it as they’re all over 40 percent on the season. The issue with stretch bigs against the Milwaukee Bucks is in the way they defend ball screens. Usually, the on-ball defender will go over the screen to prevent a three for the ball handler and trail them while the big man drops into the lane to deter them from driving.

This is problematic when there is a shooting big man on the opposing team because they can pop out to the three-point line and there’s no one there to defend them which we saw in round one when Nikola Vucevic got a lot of open looks and shot 40.9 from deep in the series. Sometimes, they will mix it up by having the on-ball defender peel off and get back to the big on the three-point line or have a third defender rotate over to that spot. These aren’t perfect strategies, but they are good ways to keep the offense guessing and not continuously give up open shots to stretch bigs and they’ll be pivotal in winning the series.

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