Milwaukee Brewers: 4 Potential Starting Pitcher Trade Targets

Spencer Turnbull – Detroit Tigers

Would you get excited about Turnbull if I told you he led the American League in two statistical categories last season? Would you be less excited if I told you those categories were pitching losses and hit batters? Yes, last season he got 17 losses hung on him, but that wasn’t all his fault as he rarely had much run support from the Tigers’ lineup. He also garnered some control concerns with 16 hit batters.

This season, he is again leading the American Leauge in two categories. One is cause for even more concern about control, leading the league with 18 walks or 5.3 per nine innings. The other is actually a good thing, as his home runs per nine innings sits at 0.0 because he hasn’t given up a long ball in 31 1/3 innings this season.

League-leading stats aside, Turnbull has improved in each season he’s had in the MLB after a short campaign in 2018 where he only pitched in four games to an ERA of 6.06. Last season, the Tigers let him start all season and he had a 4.61 ERA which was actually above-average as his ERA+ (a stat that regulates ERA so 100 is always average and adjusts for ballparks) was 104. This year, he’s been a stud for Detroit, posting an ERA of 2.97. He’s also brought his hits per nine down from 9.3 in 2019 to 6.5 this season. Unfortunately, like Perez, that has come with a spike in walks.

What’s concerning about Turnbull almost more than the clear lack of command is that the lack of hits and home runs against him seems to be due to defense and luck. His opposing exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the 11th and 28th percentile, respectively.

With Turnbull on the rise in terms of basic stats like ERA and home runs given up, the Detroit Tigers will not likely want to part with their starter who still has a year of team control in 2021 before entering arbitration. 

David Stearns often looks for guys who are the opposite way, having bad traditional statistics, but analytically are doing everything right and getting unlucky. Because of this, Turnbull doesn’t seem like a likely acquisition, but the Milwaukee Brewers could hope he continues to get lucky on batted balls and reign in his control a little bit while acquiring a cheap and team-controlled contract.