Green Bay Packers: Running Back Best and Worst Case Scenarios

Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams

Last season, Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams took 343 of the Green Bay Packers’ 411 total carries, and 46 of the other 68 were Aaron Rodgers. These two were essentially the only running backs that mattered last season. That will change with A.J. Dillon now in the mix offensively.

Aaron Jones – Projected Starting RB

Aaron Jones will still get his touches one way or another. This year, it may be more in the passing game, and his carries could see a slight dip. Still, the Green Bay Packers are a much better team when he gets the ball in his hands as much as possible in any given game.

There were only three games that the Packers scored under 20 points last season, and in those games, his number of touches were 14, 9, and 13. For comparison, his total season average of touches was 17.9, including those three low games.

Those touches broke down into 14.8 carries per game and 3.1 receptions per game. Jones’ total touches will likely go down slightly, but it will probably just be more of a shift towards the passing game. It will realistically look something like 11 carries and five receptions per game.

Jones’ best case scenario is that he continues to be the number one feature back while continuing to expand his receiving role and earns his first Pro Bowl selection. The worst thing that could happen is A.J. Dillon coming in and taking the starting job from him by simply outright dominating from day one.

This would take a superhuman effort from Dillon because of the reputation Jones has, but Dillon will likely be the guy in a few games, and hopefully, for Jones, it won’t be too many.

Best Case Stats: 1200 rushing yards, 15 touchdowns, 600 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns

Worst Case Stats: 500 rushing yards, 4 touchdowns, 300 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns

Jamaal Williams – Second or third-string back

Jamaal Williams has consistently been the Green Bay Packers’ second fiddle and done it well, hovering around 500 rushing yards in each of his first three seasons. However, he has even more to lose from Dillon’s arrival than what Aaron Jones does.

Williams is a power back who makes up for his lack of speed by lowering his pad level and breaking tackles. This is very similar to Dillon, but Dillon has some speed too and presumably more raw talent.

Williams also has receiving talent and has had at least 25 receptions and 200 yards in each of his first three years with five touchdowns in the 2019 season. He could try to make a bigger impact in that area, but with the possibility of Jones already moving out to the slot from time to time, Williams may be blocked on that front as well.

I have no doubt that Matt Lafleur will try to find a spot for him, but he doesn’t seem to possess one skill that’s the best in this backfield. He’s just okay at everything.

With this being the last year of his rookie contract, if the Packers wanted to cut him to save some money, they could certainly do that and justify it with the talent of Dillon and Jones. He’s been billed by many as a surprise cut candidate, and that’s still very much on the table, but I’m still hoping he makes the team, at least for the energy and dance moves he brings to practice every day.

For my stat predictions, I’ll work with the assumption that he makes the team:

Best Case Stats: 400 rushing yards, 6 touchdowns, 350 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns

Worst Case Stats: 150 rushing yards, 0 touchdowns, 100 receiving yards, 1 touchdown