Milwaukee Brewers: Can Orlando Arcia Carry Momentum into Regular Season?

Orlando Arcia is off to a hot start in Spring Training for the Milwaukee Brewers, but the big question is, can he carry that momentum to the regular season?

At just 22 years old at the time and having completed his first full Major League season in 2017 with a slash line of .277/.324/.407 and 15 home runs, it looked like the Milwaukee Brewers had found their long-term solution to the shortstop position in Orlando Arcia.

Unfortunately for Arcia, since then things have gone downhill.

Outside of some hot streaks here and there, his play at the plate has been abysmal and even his strong defensive prowess that he has been touted for has declined as well. During that two year stretch from 2018 to 2019, he’d post a slash line of .228/.277/.333, totaling a .610 OPS with an OPS+ of only 60.

On top of that, according to Statcast’s new metric, Outs Above Average (OAA), Arcia would see a steep decline in his defensive performance over the last two years as his OAA would drop from +12 in 2018 to -4 in 2019.

To some extent, the Brewers knew they were sacrificing some offensive production by having Arcia in the everyday lineup, but his cumulative .610 OPS and below-average play on defense in 2019 is simply not going to cut it. And GM David Stearns made that quite clear by saying this past offseason that he expects more out of the shortstop position.

But with no one internally to really push Arcia for playing time, Milwaukee had to look elsewhere and they landed the up and coming Luis Urias in a trade with San Diego.

Although just 22 years old, Urias has plenty of minor league experience with over 2,400 plate appearances and an OPS of .830. The 2019 season is when he really got his feet wet at the big league level and coming into the 2020 season with Milwaukee, he was expected to compete for the starting shortstop role right away.

However, an unfortunate injury to Urias that popped up in winter ball has held him out of Spring Training up to this point. And that has led to more playing time for Arcia, which to his credit, he has taken advantage of.

Now, of course, we have to keep in mind that this is Spring Training and Arcia isn’t up against top-notch competition every at-bat and there’s a good chance that the pitchers that he is facing, are working on something. This is after all preparation for the regular season.

But with that said, Arcia has looked quite good. Over 23 plate appearances, Arcia is slashing .304/.304/1.000 with five home runs, 10 RBIs, and only two strikeouts.

One reason behind this recent success for Arcia at the plate – other than that it is just Spring Training – is that his swing looks much more in control. In the past, Arcia has had a lot of movement with an active lower body in his swing. This year, however, he looks much more balanced which at the moment, appears to be playing a big part in his success.

So with all of that said, the big question is, can Arcia carry this momentum into the regular season?

I think at this point there is reason to be hopeful but based on his track record, it’s not something I’m going to bank on either.

The reason that there is hope is because of how he is doing it at the plate with some mechanical changes to his swing. It’s not just the same approach that we’ve seen from him in the past that hasn’t found much-sustained success.

On the other hand, the reason to be cautious is because even during these last two seasons when he’s mostly struggled, we’ve seen Arcia get hot for stretches. Most notably during the Milwaukee Brewers 2018 playoff run and Arcia also put together a solid performance in the Venezuelan Winter League before the 2019 season began. But ultimately those hot streaks come to an abrupt end and it is followed largely by poor offensive performances.

With all of the new acquisitions that the Brewers have made this offseason, there are a number of unknowns on this roster and if Arcia can provide some consistent production it will go a long way in helping this team. However, Urias isn’t going to miss much more time and when the regular season begins, it remains to be seen if Arcia can maintain this momentum.