Milwaukee Brewers Roundtable: Offseason Review & 2020 Preview

PECOTA projected the Brewers to finish the season 79-83. What are your thoughts on that?

Matt: I see the Brewers beating the 79-win projection by PECOTA and finishing more in the 85-win range. Yes, they lost some offense with the departure of Grandal and Moustakas. But the pieces that were added should still be able to provide plenty of offense, especially if players like Narvaez, Garcia, and Justin Smoak all see power surges due to being able to play half of their games in Miller Park.

Where I think this team has an edge is with their pitching. The names in the rotation may not be overly sexy, but they put the team in a much better spot than they started in 2019. And like most Counsell-managed teams, all they have to do is pitch deep enough to get it to the bullpen with a lead, where a relief corps that should be one of the best in the league once a again should be able to regularly finish the job.

I also tend to believe that David Stearns will use some of his payroll savings to make a big splash signing after the season begins, but for that we’ll have to wait and see.

Mike: That’s way too low, as PECOTA has done with the Brewers for most of the Counsell/Stearns era. The computers can do great math, but like most analytic formulas, don’t factor into the human element of the game. Guys may have underachieved the year before for numerous reasons (injury, ballpark, lineup placement, bad luck, etc) and that gets treated as the norm by the computer instead of an outlier.

The Brewers, more than any other team, have bucked the computer’s models time and time again, showing that the talent in Milwaukee is the sum of the parts, not a bunch of individual players. With a lineup of balance and styles that mesh well, the Brewers should outperform the projections yet again and fight for a division title and playoff spot.

Kenny: I think that it may be a fair prediction. Obviously it is the average of many simulations, so some simulations having them winning 65 games and some have them winning 95. I honestly think that those extremes, and everywhere in between, are possible. If guys like Anderson, Lauer, Lindblom, Urias, Sogard and Smoak don’t work out, then the wheels could fall off really quick.

On the other hand, if those guys have good seasons, Lorenzo Cain’s offense bounces back, Freddy Peralta and Corbin Burnes come back strong, and Christian Yelich has another big year, they could win the division and make a playoff run. They need lightning in a bottle, but a lot crazier things have happened.