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Green Bay Packers’ Path to the NFC’s No. 1 Seed

By Paul Bretl

GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN - DECEMBER 15: Linebacker Rashan Gary #52 of the Green Bay Packers celebrates after a tackle against the Chicago Bears during the game at Lambeau Field on December 15, 2019 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN - DECEMBER 15: Linebacker Rashan Gary #52 of the Green Bay Packers celebrates after a tackle against the Chicago Bears during the game at Lambeau Field on December 15, 2019 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /
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Although the Green Bay Packers need some help, they still have a path to the NFC’s No. 1 playoff seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Week 16 of the NFL season is upon and the Green Bay Packers are sitting pretty at 11-3 overall. Who would have seen this coming back in August? I can’t imagine that there were many.

Now, we certainly don’t want to get ahead of ourselves because despite the success that the Packers have had up to this point, a loss or two in the final weeks could quickly change everything. Green Bay still has to win a game to clinch the NFC North and with the New Orleans Saints right on their tail, they’ll likely need to win out if they hope to hang on to that No. 2 playoff seed.

However, while the Green Bay Packers need to take care of business on the field, it doesn’t mean we can’t look ahead and play the ‘what if’ game. And even though it might not be likely at this point, the Packers still have a path to the NFC’s No. 1 seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

But before we dive in to the scenario, here is how the NFC playoff picture shakes out at this moment:

  1. San Francisco 12-3
  2. Green Bay 11-3*
  3. New Orleans 11-3
  4. Dallas 7-7
  5. Seattle 11-3*
  6. Minnesota 10-4

*Green Bay holds tie-breaker over New Orleans with better conference record

*Seattle holds tie-breaker over SF and with a win against AZ becomes No. 1 seed

So, now knowing that, in order for the Green Bay Packers to be the NFC’s No. 1 playoff seed come January, here are the three steps that need to take place:

  1. Green Bay must win their last two games.
  2. Arizona has to beat Seattle in week 16.
  3. Seattle has to beat San Francisco in week 17 or they tie.

Given that both San Francisco and Seattle both hold the tie-breaker over Green Bay – the 49ers beat the Packers and Seattle has a better record against common opponents – the Packers have to finish ahead of both teams in the standings. Ending the season with the same record does them no good in this regard.

The good news is that next week’s game between San Francisco and Seattle is played at Seattle where the Seahawks have one of the best home field advantages in the NFL, not to mention that the 49ers have been struggling as of late. Prior to squeaking out their win over the Los Angeles Rams on Saturday, the 49ers had lost two of three games and had already lost to Seattle at home earlier this season.

Meanwhile, the potential long-shot in this scenario is Seattle losing at home this week to Arizona. Although the Cardinals have improved throughout the season, they lost to the Seahawks 27-10 back in week 4 and Seattle is rolling right now, having won six of their last seven games.

At this point the odds may not be in the Green Bay Packers’ favor that the NFC playoffs will go through Lambeau Field, but of course, we can still hold out hope.

dark. Next. Packers v. Vikings: Final Predictions

All things considered, even if Green Bay doesn’t get that one seed, the No. 2 seed still looks pretty good right about now as it would give the Packers at least one home playoff game and a first round-bye. However, there is still a lot of work to be done before they get to that point and it all starts with winning a very tough road game against Minnesota on Monday Night.

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