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Milwaukee Bucks: Buy or sell early-season trends

By Brian Sampson

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - OCTOBER 26: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks dribbles the ball while being guarded by Bam Adebayo #13 and Meyers Leonard #0 of the Miami Heat in the first quarter at the Fiserv Forum on October 26, 2019 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - OCTOBER 26: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks dribbles the ball while being guarded by Bam Adebayo #13 and Meyers Leonard #0 of the Miami Heat in the first quarter at the Fiserv Forum on October 26, 2019 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /
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The Milwaukee Bucks have gotten off to a rocky start to the 2019-20 season. Should we buy or sell these early season trends?

The Milwaukee Bucks 2-2 start isn’t exactly what everyone pictured coming off a 60-win season and an appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals. Entering the season, the burden was on Milwaukee to prove last year wasn’t a fluke and to perform with high expectations on their shoulder. In what’s quickly becoming one of the most overused idioms around the Bucks; their transition from the hunter to the hunted hasn’t been a smooth one.

After defeating the Houston Rockets on the road in the season-opener, they fell to the Miami Heat in their first home game. They followed that up with a victory over the lowly Cleveland Cavaliers before falling to the Boston Celtics. The Bucks now have a tough set of games at the Orlando Magic and vs the Toronto Raptors in a back to back before taking on the Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Clippers, Utah Jazz and Oklahoma City Thunder on the road. However, before we look ahead to those games, let’s see if we should buy or sell these early season trends.

Blown Leads

Last year, the Bucks were 25-0 when leading by double digits at halftime and 47-7 when leading at all. This year, they’re 0-2 when ahead by 10 or more points and 1-2 when leading at all. That’s not something head coach Mike Budenholzer is going to be happy about. His team has bled points at times and hasn’t been able to stop anyone from scoring. Budenholzer prides his teams on their defense and he’ll work to adjust this. Don’t expect this trend to continue.

Verdict: Sell

Points in the Paint

Milwaukee was third in the NBA last year when it came to points in the paint by averaging 52.2 per game. A lot of this was due to Giannis Antetokounmpo. He’s nearly unstoppable and is one of the best finishers in the league. Eric Bledsoe and Malcolm Brogdon also played a role, as they were good at getting to the hoop.

It’s a different story through four games, as the Bucks rank 22nd in the league after only putting up 45 points per game in the paint. Teams have zeroed in on stopping Antetokounmpo and “walling off” the paint. However, it’s only a matter of time until he finds a counter and figures it out.

Verdict: Sell

Don't be concerned with Giannis' future. dark. Next

Three-Point Rate

A year after seeing their three-point rate jump 11 percent, the Bucks are taking even more threes this year. Nearly half of all their shots come from behind the arc- a trend that matches what the rest of the league is doing. Even if the rest of the teams aren’t shooting this often, the Bucks have taken the three-point shooting to the extreme.

Part of it has to do with teams choosing to allow the Bucks to bomb away from the outside rather than give up layups and dunks. The other factor is Milwaukee’s willingness to take those shots. This is certainly a trend that will continue even if it dips a little from it’s current rate.

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