Milwaukee Brewers: This is the real Zach Davies

Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Zach Davies has been a pleasant surprise this season, but based on what we have seen over his career, we shouldn’t be that shocked.

As the final weeks of the Milwaukee Brewers, 2019 Spring Training was coming to a close, we had a good idea of who was going to make up the starting rotation for the most part.

After a strong 2018 campaign, we knew that Jhoulys Chacin would be the Opening Day starter and following him would be the trio of young pitchers in Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, and Brandon Woodruff.

What we weren’t sure on was who would be in that fifth spot. Zach Davies and Chase Anderson were both candidates looking to bounce back from disappointing 2018 seasons and there was always the possibility that the Brewers could go out and sign someone.

However, as we all know, Davies would go on to win the job and the starting pitcher with the lowest expectations of the bunch at the beginning of the season has been the Milwaukee Brewers most reliable option.

Chacin has struggled to regain his form from 2018, while Burnes has given up too many home runs and is now in the bullpen, and Peralta has had issues finding any sort of consistency on the mound and is once again, struggling in the first inning of games.

Even Woodruff who overall has been very solid is prone to giving up the big inning. As a result, the Brewers signed Gio Gonzalez, have thrown Jimmy Nelson into the mix and we’ve even seen Adrian Houser make a few starts.

Yet, with all the shuffling within the rotation, Davies has been the rock. And while I was surprised by what we have seen from him initially, if we look at his body of work when healthy, this is the real Zach Davies.

2018 was a difficult year for Davies that was filled with injuries and when he was on the mound he clearly wasn’t the same guy that we’ve seen in 2019 and in previous years.

Davies would pitch in only 66 innings and would record a 4.77 ERA with 67 hits and 36 runs allowed.

While there was uncertainty surrounding what we would see from Davies in 2019, and rightfully so, if we look at his 2016 and 2017 seasons, we wouldn’t have been so surprised.

In those previous two healthy seasons prior to 2018, Davies would average 177 innings pitched, including 193.1 in 2017, with an ERA of 3.93 and an average of only 78 earned runs per year.

Now in 2019 when healthy again, Davies has taken a big step forward and so far has put together a fantastic season. Through 79.2 innings so far, Davies has a 2.60 ERA, with only 23 earned runs and only 2.5 walks per game, along with a 7-1 record.

Davies never has, nor will he ever be a pitcher that is going to overpower hitters. Instead, he relies on his pitch location and pitch mix to keep them off-balance. And in 2019, his location, especially with his change-up on the corners has been incredible. His whiff rate with the change-up has more than tripled his next closest pitch.

As a result, compared to his last healthy season in 2017, his opponents batting average is down 13 points in 2019 and their OPS is down another 25 points. That coupled with his ability to keep the ball in the park and the fact that he just doesn’t give up many walks is going to equate to little run production from opposing teams.

At still just 26-years-old, Davies is entering the prime of his career and already has a ton of big league experience. While not many would have expected this performance through June 19th back on Opening Day, what we are seeing from Davies in 2019 is far closer to what we’ve seen for a majority of his career than his 2018 season was.