4. SP Junior Guerra
Team Control until 2023
Why he will be traded: After a breakout 2016, Guerra had a rough 2017 before finding his form again in 2018 as a reliable, late-blooming, starter. With a 3.43 ERA, Guerra is just what the doctor ordered for a contending team like Colorado to use in the middle of their rotation. Guerra is also extremely controllable (he isn’t arbitration eligible until 2019), despite his age. With next year’s rotation looking strong, Guerra may again be the odd man out and his late-career success could convince a team to swing a deal.
Why he won’t be traded: At age 33, Guerra doesn’t have any projection left and some teams might view him as a guy who succeeded in Milwaukee but won’t be able to anywhere else. There was a reason why he didn’t debut until 2015 at age 30. Throw in his increasing walk and hit rate and he may not be viewed as a true piece of another team’s rotation in 2019.
Will he get traded?: If the Brewers trust Freddy Peralta to be the fifth starter next year or they value Wade Miley coming back to provide a lefty presence, then Guerra is likely a prime trade candidate during the Winter Meetings. Much like Davies, he’s stuck behind Nelson, Burnes, Anderson, and Chacin in 2019 with Peralta and Miley also likely having a leg up. Guerra should be able to fetch a lottery ticket prospect or two, much like Adam Lind did. And that turned out pretty well. But he’s not the only late-blooming player who could be on the move. His battery mate might be on his way out as well.