Milwaukee Brewers: Building A Better Batting Order

The Milwaukee Brewers off season is officially on. Some fans are already looking forward to 2017, while others need time to reflect on this year. Part of this reflection is assessing the team’s batting order.

Members of the Milwaukee Brewers front office will take on the review process, before turning attention to the future. During this time David Stearns must assess his roster and determine who is worth keeping?

While Stearns is in charge of who’s on the team, manager Craig Counsell must put players in position to succeed.

His decisions to do so, have the most impact several hours before first pitch as he fills out the lineup card. In this duty Counsell directly affects the teams likelihood of scoring runs.

Ultimately, he is judged by the amount of team victories. Victories come through scoring runs.

Did Craig Counsell play his cards right this year? Or, were runs left on the table due to a poorly constructed batting order?

According to an article by Derek Reifer from Corner Three: A Smart Sports Analysis, MLB managers are not taking advantage of sabermetrics to fill out their lineup card.

The failure to do so is costing teams runs and victories. He argues the tradition of baseball keeps managers from making drastic changes. This leads to a lineup including the following logic,

"1st: Speedy guy who can steal bases. 2nd: Guy who can drop a bunt or draw a walk. 3rd: Your best pure hitter. 4th: Cleanup man; your best power hitter. 5th: Complete the “heart” of the order; a good power hitter. 6th-8th: Your remaining position players, in descending order of quality. 9th (NL): Your pitcher."

When thinking back to a typical 2016 Brewers lineup, it would seem Counsell is locked into baseball tradition.

While there is something to be said to sticking to with what is proven. A small market, rebuilding team must take chances to be ahead of the curve.

So, what should a more progressive lineup look like?

According to Reifer,

"You should put your hitters in the specified order, based on descending value of OBP. Because the first batter’s OBP has the greatest effect on your team’s total runs, then fourth, then second, etc., ordering your lineup in such a way would be a big step up from just generalizing and using traditional methods."

In practical terms this means the following lineup logic

1. Lead off must include your player with the highest OBP.
2. Your best overall hitter. Player who can drive in the most runs.
3. RBI producer, does not need to be high on base guy
4. 3rd best overall hitter on the team
5. 5th best hitter, try for someone with speed
6. 6th best hitter
7. 7th best hitter
8. 8th best hitter
9. 9th best hitter

While this may not seem like a drastic change. Over a 162 game season the slightest advantage can produce meaningful results.

If one is to apply this strategy to the 2016 Brewers, how should their lineup card have been filled out?

All statistics for this study come from FanGraphs