Milwaukee Brewers’ Hitters Need Patience on the First Pitch

Despite the Milwaukee Brewers ranking 3rd in runs scored per game, they need to practice restraint on the opening pitch of each at-bat.

It’s difficult to complain much about the Milwaukee Brewers‘ offense in 2017. As the 3rd-best offense in MLB (5.10 runs per contest) – and the best home run hitting team – this unit has carried the club to its 15-14 start.

But as anyone who follows baseball knows, consistency over the course of 162 games is the ultimate challenge. It’s important for each player, and the club as a whole, to figure out why they’re having success. The numbers show they’ve benefited most when they take the first pitch.

When Brewers’ batters swing at the first pitch of an at-bat, their collective OPS is .644 this season. That ranks 27th out of 30 MLB teams. This takes every plate appearance into account when the player takes a cut on the first pitch, no matter how deep the count goes.

When Milwaukee hitters take the opening pitch of an at-bat, a ball or strike, their resulting OPS is .851. The Brewers have the best OPS in baseball when they watch that first pitch.

The temptation to swing at the first pitch is understandable. Often times the pitcher is looking to get ahead with a fastball over some part of the plate. Many believe that is the best pitch you’re going to get on a consistent basis.

Most teams have an impressive OPS when they put the first pitch in play, which also counts hit-by-pitches. Twelve MLB clubs have an OPS over 1.000 this season when putting that first pitch in play.

Milwaukee only has an .878 OPS in this scenario, good for just 20th in the league. A large part of the issue is that 65% of the time they swing at the first pitch, they are either failing to make contact or fouling it off.

Some may wonder, what does it matter if you fall behind 0-1 while swinging or taking for strike one?

Pitchers and catchers get a better read on the hitter if he swings at the first pitch instead of taking it. Was he way late on the fastball? Was he bailing out on the slider? It gives the opposition extra information to use against the batter and to set him up as the at-bat goes on.

Let’s say the batter was out in front of an inside fastball and he ripped one foul down the line. Now a breaking ball or changeup away is all the more effective. Both mentally and physically, the batter is likely at a disadvantage. His bat was clearly sped up for heat and is susceptible to offspeed.

If the batter takes the first pitch, there’s almost no indication about his intentions. There’s no clue as to the hitter’s bat speed or path, nor whether or not a pitch will overmatch him. The batter could even be setting up the pitcher, knowing he often throws an inside fastball after a first-pitch curveball for a called strike.

Even with an 0-1 count, a hitter can have an advantage when taking that first-pitch strike.

Of course, that first pitch isn’t always a strike either. In fact, when the Milwaukee Brewers don’t swing at pitch one of a plate appearance, it’s a ball 59% of the time. Thus, the second reason the Brewers could benefit from more patience early in the count is how they’re hitting when they get up 1-0 at the plate.

When putting the ball in play on a 1-0 count, the Brewers have a 1.172 OPS – the 2nd-best mark in MLB. And any time after the count goes to 1-0, they also own a .901 OPS, which is 3rd in baseball.

A bit more patience when stepping in the box could certainly do wonders for guys like Jonathan Villar and Orlando Arcia. Although Ryan Braun owns the team’s highest first-pitch swing percentage (41%), he is on a different level as a player. Braun can do what he wants, especially if it’s working.

Villar (40.8%) and Arcia (38.5%), the club’s next two most frequent swingers on the first pitch, aren’t enjoying much success. Villar’s 41 strikeouts are the 2nd-most in MLB, one behind the co-leaders. He’s also been miserable even reaching base, sitting with a .264 OBP. Imagine the Brewers’ offensive numbers if he was just slightly better.

Meanwhile, Arcia needs to learn that hitting in front of the pitcher means he’s mostly going to be teased at the dish. If he continues to chase pitches out of the zone – especially the first pitch – things will never get better for him. Through 29 games, Arcia has a .231 average and .271 OBP.

There’s no doubt the coaching staff has stressed this to Arcia, but it’s not getting through. It might be time to move him to the 9-spot behind the pitcher where he can act as a second leadoff man. Plenty of hitters, particularly young guys, have a terrible time batting in front of the pitcher.

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Arcia simply likes to swing the bat. He has the 5th-highest swing percentage in MLB, taking a hack at 57% of the pitches he sees. That over-aggressive attack mentality might be something he never loses, but a small adjustment could make a difference.

Some may see this idea of first-pitch patience as nitpicking a dynamic offense. However, baseball is the ultimate game of adjustments, and eventually, the Milwaukee Brewers’ current strategy will cause them to falter.

No matter how well a player or team is doing, it’s imperative to shore up weaknesses. These minor issues can develop into bigger problems, be exploited by the opposition, or both.

Next: Brewers' Jimmy Nelson Must Abandon This Pitch

There’s no telling how good the offense will be by the end of the season. Right now, the Milwaukee Brewers have been among the best in the game. As the season wears on, it’s vital they continue to self-scout and limit ways they can be easily retired.